Georgia voters will decide three changes to the state constitution on Nov. 3: a bigger property tax break for large farms and timberland, nonpartisan elections for probate judges, and a dedicated fund for upgraded 911 systems.

So which ones are most likely to pass? No one has published a poll on the amendments, so no one knows for sure. But the record offers some strong clues: how lawmakers voted, who is for and against each one, and how Georgians have voted on similar questions before.

Columbus Times does not endorse ballot measures. This is an analysis of the public record, not a prediction or a recommendation.

First, the big picture: Georgia voters usually say yes

Constitutional amendments in Georgia start in the legislature, and they need a two-thirds vote in both the House and Senate just to reach the ballot. That high bar means most amendments arrive with broad support, and voters usually approve them.

• From 1985 to 2024, 139 statewide measures went before Georgia voters. 112 passed and 27 failed, according to Ballotpedia. That's about 4 out of 5.
• Every statewide measure passed in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024. The last one to fail was in 2016, when voters rejected a plan to let the state take over "chronically failing" public schools.

But "usually" isn't "always," and some pass by a hair. In 2024, an amendment creating a statewide Georgia Tax Court passed with just 52% of the vote, even as the homestead tax break on the same ballot passed with 63%. When voters don't know much about a question, the margin can get thin.

Amendment 3: Money for upgraded 911 systems

What it does: Lets the legislature create a Georgia Next Generation 9-1-1 Fund and dedicate money to it. The money could be used only to expand, maintain and run the state's 911 systems, including the move to a digital system that can better handle texts, photos and video.

Why it looks strong:

• Unanimous final votes. The House passed it 162-0, and the Senate passed it 49-0.
• Support from both parties and from local governments. Backers include House Speaker Jon Burns (R), Senate Minority Leader Harold Jones (D), Columbus state Rep. Carolyn Hugley (D), the Georgia Emergency Communications Authority and the Georgia Municipal Association.
• No organized opposition. Ballotpedia has not found any campaign or committee against it.
• It's easy to understand. Most voters know what 911 is and want it to work. "We hear many stories: They call 911, a person may not answer," Jones said. "This is what we're hoping to actually change."

The caution: Amendments that lock money into a fund for one purpose don't always cruise. Since 1990, Georgia voters have decided nine of them: seven passed and two failed, with an average "yes" vote of about 61%, according to Ballotpedia.

Amendment 1: A bigger tax break for large farms and timberland

What it does: Doubles the maximum acreage one owner can enroll in Georgia's "conservation use" property tax program, from 2,000 to 4,000 acres. Enrolled land is taxed at 40% of its value as farm or timber land, and owners must keep it in farming, timber or conservation for 10 years.

Why it looks strong:

• Nearly unanimous votes. The House passed it 168-5, and the Senate passed it 50-1.
• No organized opposition. Ballotpedia hasn't found any arguments or campaign against it. Supporters include several Republican state senators and the national group Americans for Tax Reform.
• Georgia voters have been saying yes to tax breaks. In 2024, a homestead property tax break passed with 63%, and a measure raising the personal property tax exemption passed with 64%.
• Supporters' argument is simple. "Agriculture has changed. Our family farms are getting much larger today," said state Sen. Sam Watson (R).

The caution: This tax break mainly helps owners of large tracts, and voters in cities and suburbs, which is most of the state, may not see what's in it for them. Because more land would be taxed at the lower rate, it could also reduce the property tax collected on that land, which helps pay for local governments and schools.

Amendment 2: Nonpartisan elections for probate judges

What it does: Requires all probate judges to run without a party label. Probate judges are the last judges in Georgia who still run as Democrats or Republicans. If it passes, a 2025 law would also make magistrate judges run without party labels. If it fails, that law is repealed.

Why it has a good chance:

• The broadest list of named supporters. They include Georgia Supreme Court Chief Justice Nels Peterson, U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter (R), state Sen. Brian Strickland (R), and a long list of mayors, among them Columbus Mayor B.H. "Skip" Henderson III.
• Former governors from both parties back it. Nathan Deal (R) and Roy Barnes (D) have both supported it.
• A simple pitch. Probate courts handle "wills, estates, guardianships, marriage licenses, mental health commitments, and other deeply sensitive issues," supporters wrote in an open letter to voters, and "these responsibilities are not inherently political."
• The final Senate vote was 46-0.

Why it's the one to watch:

• It's the only one of the three with named opposition. State Rep. Charlice Byrd (R) opposes it, and so does Americans for Tax Reform (the same group that supports Amendment 1). Byrd's argument: voters deserve to know where candidates stand. "I believe that we need to know as individuals where you stand on issues," she said.
• It had the bumpiest road. It passed the House 147-20, with no votes from both parties. And it first fell short of the two-thirds needed in the state Senate before passing on a later vote.
• Some voters like party labels. For voters who use party as a shortcut in low-information races, taking the label away can feel like losing information.

The bottom line

Based on the record:

Amendment 3 has the clearest path, with unanimous final votes and no opposition. Amendment 1 looks likely too, given near-unanimous votes and Georgia's recent record on tax breaks. Amendment 2 has the most high-profile support but also the only organized "no" side, which makes it the one most worth watching on election night.

Still, history says all three start with the odds in their favor.

How to vote

• Early voting: Tuesday, Oct. 13, through Friday, Oct. 30. In Columbus, the City Services Center (3111 Citizens Way), Shirley Winston Recreation Center (5025 Steam Mill Road) and the Elizabeth Bradley Turner Center at Columbus State University (4225 University Ave.) are open the whole period.
• Election Day: Tuesday, Nov. 3, 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
• See your ballot: mvp.sos.ga.gov
• You don't have to vote on every question. Skipping an amendment doesn't cancel the rest of your ballot.

Read our full explainer: Georgia's 3 Constitutional Amendments on the Nov. 3 Ballot, Explained in Plain English.

Columbus Times does not endorse candidates or ballot measures.